Case Closed: GroupThink Explains Myles Garrett Winning DPOY over T.J. Watt

The AP has named Myles Garrett as 2023’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year over T.J. Watt, and in doing so makes a mockery of itself and the entire process.

Truthfully, T.J. Watt’s 2023 season might not be worthy of a second DPOY award, because it is perhaps more worthy of an NFL MVP Award. But I digress.

T.J. Watt, Steelers vs Titans, T.J. Watt sack Will Levis no helmet

No helmet? No problem for T.J. Watt. Photo Credit: Chaz Palla, Steelers.com

Let’s call a horse a horse here: Voting Myles Garrett over T.J. Watt for the NFL DPOY is an exercise in GroupThink pure and simple. Throughout the season, anyone who was even remotely tied into NFL threads on X (formerly known as Twitter) could see that there was a campaign underway pushing for Myles Garrett as 2023’s Defensive Player of the Year.

Two factors fuel GroupThink here. First is a palpable pro-Garrett sentiment in the press. Second is an infatuation with analytics, largely supplied by Pro Football Focus metrics.

The press likes Myles Garrett. By all accounts he’s a well-rounded person who readily engages with members of the media. That’s fine. Good relationships with the press often lead to positive coverage (see Najee Harris for a contrasting example.) That’s how the game is played.

But relationships shouldn’t trump facts, but when in Garrett’s case it has. Jim Wexell pointed this out on Steel City Insider shortly after Myles Garrett assaulted Mason Rudolph in the infamous Body Bag Game back in 2019. Reflecting on reactions of many Cleveland based reporters, Wexell offered this:

Listening to Cleveland-area reporters telling me how nice of a guy Garrett is, and how well he treats his dog, made me think of reporters interviewing neighbors of mass murderers. Yes, a bit much, but, honestly, Mason Rudolph could’ve been killed out there. “He was SUCH a nice, quiet guy who never bothered anyone. And what a LOVELY dog!”

While Wexell admits to exaggerating a bit, subsequent events proved his point. After Roger Goodell lifted his suspension, Garrett doubled down on his baseless, debunked claim that Mason Rudolph uttered the N-word during their scuffle.

Garrett’s claim went unchallenged to the point where Mike Tomlin did the unheard of by breaking his off season vowel of silence by joining Stephen Smith on ESPN to defend his quarterback.

  • The analytics nut is a bit harder to crack.

Advanced analytics certainly have their place in today’s NFL. They can be an excellent tool for uncovering contributions and achievements that remain hidden in standard box scores. Kenny Pickett’s quarter-by-quarter splits might offer an example here.

But over-reliance on analytics, either by coaches or the press creates a tail-wags the dog dynamic. Which is what’s happening with Myles Garrett, who apparently does exceptionally better than his peers in penetrating pass coverage.

  • Fine. But the result of what you do after you get past the offensive lineman that drives excellence.

And in that, T.J. Watt wins hands down. Some times raw numbers reveal a truth that advanced analytics can’t obscure:

T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Micha Parsons

Numbers don’t lie: T.J. Watt should be 2023’s NFL DPOY

But of course there are those who try to argue that it’s as much about quality as it is quantity. So let’s take a look at a highlights reveal a little bit about the quality vs quantity debate. Here’s a clip of T.J. Watt’s interception against the Rams this past season:

Now let’s look at a clip of a Myles Garrett interception from the past season…. Oh, wait a minute. He doesn’t have one.

Scores serve as an excellent differentiator when evaluating defenders. So let’s take a look at T.J. Watt’s touchdown from the season:

That wasn’t just a splash play, it came at a critical moment and sealed the Steelers win over the Browns. Now, let’s look at a Myles Garrett scoring play from the 2023 season…. Oh, wait a minute, Myles Garrett didn’t have a scoring play.  (And this was a close game. Garrett had multiple opportunities to make a similar play. He didn’t. Just Saying….)

And this barely scratches the depths of the pro-Garett GroupThink movement. In the eyes of one commentator, Garrett is more versatile than T.J. Watt.

Fortunately, Steelers reporter Mike Frazer wasn’t having any of it.

 

Yes, facts can be stubborn things, but they come up short against GroupThink.

Myles Garrett beat out T.J. Watt because it many felt it was “His turn” and perhaps because Cam Heyward won the NFL’s Walter Payton Man of the Year Award, and as L.C. Greenwood’s absence from the Hall of Fame attest to, the “too many Steelers” mentality is real.

JJ Watt was right when he stated: “Myles is a phenomenal player, I’m a big fan and he’s had an incredible career so far. I can acknowledge that while also wondering what more TJ could have possibly done.”

T.J. Watt couldn’t have done more, and frankly should have needed to.

But it is what it is.

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