With So Much Seemingly Wrong in Pittsburgh, Steelers Standing by Ryan Shazier is Fundamentally Right

A lot of things haven’t gone right for the Pittsburgh Steelers. After knocking on heaven’s door against New England in the 2016 AFC Championship nothing has gone Pittsburgh’s way.

Room temperature meant needing Cleveland to beat Baltimore to make the playoffs, and the Browns blew it. Then news broke that Antonio Brown had quit on his teammates before the season finale against the Bengals. Then Antonio Brown proceeded to humiliate the team on social media, ultimately forcing the team to take fire sale value in a trade with the Raiders.

The national media has decided to pile on Pittsburgh to the point where Josh Harris (who?) gets a national platform to dump on Ben Roethlisberger. Just how far reaching is this pile on? Well Josh Harris’ claim ignited two days of parallel debate on both Mexican and Argentine Steelers WhatsApp groups.

  • To be certain, Art Rooney II, Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have begun taking action to right the wrongs.

The Steelers wisely decided not to slap the transition tag on Le’Veon Bell. That ended or at least signaled the end to that story. Then they gained come vindication to when Le’Veon Bell signed for less money than they’d offered him a year ago. And they’ll still have James Conner at a fraction of the cost.

  • The Steelers have also been active in free agency.

One by one they’ve signed Steven Nelson, Donte Moncrief and Mark Barron. Objectively speaking, each of those moves make them stronger today and gives the flexibility in the 2019 NFL Draft. However, it is wise to be a little wary.

Art Rooney Sr. warned his sons against “Putting on the dog. ” The Steelers recent history with splash free agency moves haven’t gone so well. See the tenures of Mike Mitchell and Ladarius Green. The Steelers aggressiveness is satisfying this spring, but those signings must not fall short come autumn. Time will tell.

  • But the one unequivocal right move the Steelers made involves a player who won’t take a snap this year.

And that player is Ryan Shazier. Last week the NFL announced that Ryan Shazier’s 2018 contract was tolled, or rolled into 2019 because he didn’t play the requisite games to qualify for a full year of service. This is an administrative decision made under the terms of the CBA.

Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Shazier, Steelers vs Bengals

Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Shazier after the Steelers win. Photo Credit: Aaron Doster, USA Today, via 937TheFan.com

Not that it matters to the Steelers. At the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine Kevin Colbert made clear the Steelers were going to keep Ryan Shazier on their 2019 roster regardless of whether the NFL tolled his contract or not.

The Steelers are making sure they do what they can to take care of Ryan Shazier. They could have given him a coaching or front office job, but by keeping him on as a player, Ryan Shazier gets access to better health care, another year of pension accrual, and access to all the other benefits that an NFL player enjoy.

After enduring several months when so much seemed to go wrong for Pittsburgh, Steelers are doing right by Ryan Shazier and that is fundamentally a good thing.

Has Steelers free agency left you scrambling? Click here for our Steelers 2019 Free Agent tracker or click here for all Steelers 2019 free agency focus articles.

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Steelers Sign Donte Moncrief, Resign Eli Rogers, Lose L.J. Fort

The Steelers most aggressive forays into free agency since 1993 continued as Pittsburgh signed wide receiver Donte Moncrief to a two year deal. The Steelers were expected to bolster their wide receiving corps following the trade of Antonio Brown to the Oakland Raiders, however many expected them to target the position early in the 2019 NFL Draft.

The Steelers had sown interest in Donte Moncrief during the 2014 NFL Draft but did not have a 3rd round pick having traded it away a year earlier to get Shamarko Thomas. Clearly that is one transaction which Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert would like have back.

  • Donte Moncrief in fact caught his first touchdown against the Steelers in the 2014 shoot out with the Colts.

As Jim Wexell details, Moncief’s other efforts against the Steelers have been far more pedestrian, but that was also the only time he had the benefit of being on the receiving end of Andrew Luck’s passes. While the Steelers clearly would like for James Washington to start opposite JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief will provide the “sophomore” wide out.

Donte Moncrief, Steelers sign Donte Moncrief, Artie Burns, Steelers vs Colts

Steelers sign Donte Moncief, pictured burning Artie Burns in 2017. Photo Credit: Matt Kryger, Indy Star

Rogers Signs for 2 Years, McCullers Back Too?

The Steelers took another step to bolstering depth at wide receiver when they signed Eli Rogers to a two year deal. Like Ryan Shazier, Eli Roger’s contract had tolled, meaning he did not acquire enough seniority to reach free agency this year, but the Steelers move will keep Rogers with the team through 2020.

  • Free agency news in Pittsburgh was not all good, however.

Reserve linebacker L.J. Fort, who had an under the radar performance during 2018, signed a 3 year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. L.J. Fort had been on the Steelers roster since 2015, working almost excursively on special teams.

Injuries to Vince Williams gave L.J. Fort’s first prolonged playing experience, and L.J. Fort played well and by the end of the season he appeared to have surpassed Jon Bostic on the depth chart. The Steelers are expected to target inside linebacker early and perhaps often in the 2019 NFL Draft, so L.J. Fort was not expected to start.

However, L.J. Fort could have been a quality player at a position that is sorely lacking both depth and talent.

While the Eagles are not exactly giving L.J. Fort starter money, it would appear to be above what the Steelers were willing to pay.

Although there does not seem to be official confirmation yet, ESPN is reporting that the Steelers have resigned Daniel McCullers two a two year deal.

Has Steelers free agency left you scrambling? Click here for our Steelers 2019 Free Agent tracker or click here for all Steelers 2019 free agency focus articles.

 

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L.J. Fort Played Well for Steelers in 2018. Can He Cash in Free Agency?

Inside linebacker has been a position of need for the Pittsburgh Steelers since December 4th 2018 when Ryan Shazier suffered a spinal contusion against the Cincinnati Bengals. The injury sent the Steelers scrambling to fill a gaping hole in the middle of their defense. In short order the Steelers have tried:

L.J. Fort was a beneficiary of all of these misfires, because they earned him his first real playing time. How well did he take advantage of that opportunity? The bottom line will reveal itself soon as L.J. Fort reaches free agency.

L.J. Fort, L.J. Fort free agency, Matt Ryan, Steelers vs Falcons

L.J. Fort rushes Matt Ryan. Photo Credit: Karl Rosner, via Steelers.com

Capsule Profile of  L.J. Fort’s Steelers Career

L.J. Fort was an undrafted free agent out of Northern Iowa in 2012 and worked his way through several NFL teams–including the Browns, Broncos, Seahawks, Bengals and Patriots — before finding a more secure home with Pittsburgh in 2015.

After being used mostly as a special teams player during his first few seasons while dealing with a loaded depth chart at inside linebacker — Lawrence Timmons, Ryan Shazier and Vince Williams ate up the majority of snaps in 2016 and 2017 — L.J. Fort began to see more playing time near the end of 2017 in the wake of the tragic spinal injury suffered by Shazier in early December.

2018 was a minor watershed year for L.J. Fort on defense as he saw his playing time increase as the season went along and the Steelers tried desperately to find some way to replace the other-worldly athleticism Shazier once brought to the inside linebacker spot. Appearing in 15 games and starting two, L.J. Fort had his most productive season by far in 2018, recording 48 tackles, a sack and a touchdown in the Steelers win over Atlanta.

The Case for the Steelers Resigning L.J. Fort

While L.J. Fort did turn pro in 2012 and did bounce around the NFL before arriving in Pittsburgh, he only appeared in 18 games prior to 2015. Therefore, despite being 29 years old, Fort likely doesn’t have the wear and tear on his body that another player his age might.

Also, as already alluded to, of all the inside linebackers currently on the Steelers roster, L.J. Fort’s athleticism comes closest to matching that of Shazier’s prior to his injury. Jon Bostic, Tyler Matakevich and Williams certainly don’t possess L.J. Fort’s speed and quickness. In-fact, if L.J. Fort was on another team, and that team was preparing to play the Steelers during Shazier’s prime, L.J. Fort would likely be the guy pegged to emulate him in practice.

And given Fort’s age and limited tape, it’s not likely teams will be lining up for his services. In other words, the Steelers could and probably should resign him at a very team friendly price.

The Case Against the Steelers Resigning L.J. Fort

While L.J. Fort does possess potential, the fact that it still has yet to be realized at this stage of his career may be quite telling. Besides, it’s not all that uncommon for an NFL player to look pretty good in limited playing time, before getting exposed as a starter. Fact is, the Steelers thought so little of L.J. Fort’s abilities after Shazier’s injury in late 2017, they signed Sean Spence off the streets and started him in the disastrous divisional round playoff game against the Jaguars.

Curtain’s Call on the Steelers and L.J. Fort

In reality, it is highly unlikely at this point of his career that L.J. Fort is still some diamond in the rough who will suddenly morph into a dominant linebacker in his 30s a la James Harrison.

  • But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a very good depth player–not to mention a great special teams player.

Even if the Steelers go out and sign one of the prime free agent inside linebackers or draft one in the first round, there should still be room on the depth chart for L.J. Fort. And, again, considering the price it would likely take to keep him, I think it’s a no-brainer that L.J. Fort stays with the Steelers in 2019.

Has Steelers free agency left you scrambling? Click here for our Steelers 2019 Free Agent tracker or click here for all Steelers 2019 free agency focus articles.

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Steelers Would be Right to Resign Eli Rogers

We begin this latest installment of our Steelers 2019 free agent focus by paying homage to the legendary Washington, DC Sports Radio personality, the late Ken Beatrice who often lamented to his listeners:

  • I offer my apologies for not having gone to law school to bring you the sports news.

And this was in the ‘80’s and ‘90’s. We bring that up because it is not 100% clear that Eli Rogers as a free agent, as his contract was “tolled.” Whatever that means. But so was Ryan Shazier’s, and at one point word was that Shazier needed a new contract, but now that’s not so clear.

So we’re presuming that Eli Rogers is in fact a free agent that the Steelers must make a decision on.

Eli Rogers, Eli Rogers free agent

Eli Rogers in 2017. Photo Credit: USA Today, via The Cardinal Connect

Capsule Profile of Eli Roger’s Steelers Career

Eli Rogers joined the Steelers as a member of their 2015 undrafted rookie free agent class. Fighting his way up a depth chart headed by Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Sammie Coates, Rogers chances of securing a roster spot appeared slim.

  • Yet by late August, USA Today Steelers Wire writer Neal Coolong went as far as to compare Rogers to a young Antonio Brown.

Shortly thereafter, injuries ruined Roger’s rookie season sending him to injured reserve.

In 2016 Eli Rogers vindicated Coolong’s praise by earning the slot receiver job. By the end of the season, Rogers served as Steelers defacto number 2 wide out, and had caught 48 passes, putting him behind only Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.

In 2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster’s emergence and Martavis Bryant’s return diminished Eli Rogers offensive role. Although Eli Rogers’ catch percentage dipped in 2017, his performance perked up at the end of the season, and during the playoff loss to the Jaguars he was a perfect 5-5.

  • Unfortunately, Eli Rogers tore his ACL in that game, and began 2018 on the PAP list.

Eli Rogers was activated for the Steelers final 3 games and clearly gave the offense a boost.

The Case for the Steelers Resigning Eli Rogers

How does 12 of 14 suit you? Those are Eli Roger’s catch-target numbers for the three games he played in 2019. Pittsburgh’s 2018 offense while potent, was missing something for much of the year.

That missing link was a third wide receiver. James Washington wasn’t quite ready to fill that role, and Justin Hunter was unable. While Ryan Switzer was a quality 4th wide out. It is going to be all hands on deck for the Steelers wide receiving corps as Pittsburgh looks to “replace” Antonio Brown.

Eli Rogers is never got to grow into an Antonio Brown type receiver, but he provides quality depth and has shown he came come up in big games, going 4-4 catching everything Ben Roethlisberger threw his way in his first action in the win over the Patriots.

The Case Against the Steelers Resigning Eli Rogers

The Steelers are going to bring in another starting-caliber wide receiver, perhaps through the draft or perhaps via free agency – or perhaps using both channels. Assuming those players deliver as promised, does that really leave room for Eli Rogers on the Steelers 2019 roster?

Perhaps more importantly, does that justify investing precious salary cap dollars and signing bonus money in someone you might end up cutting in late August anyway?

Curtain’s Call on the Steelers and Eli Rogers

The Steelers clearly like Eli Rogers, having resigned him last summer when they knew he wasn’t going to contribute for most of the year. Rogers delivered as soon as his number was called, picking up right where he left off in the Jaguars debacle.

The Steelers should bring him back, and almost certainly they will.

Has Steelers free agency left you scrambling? Click here for our Steelers 2019 Free Agent tracker or click here for all Steelers 2019 free agency focus articles.

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¿Por que los Pittsburgh Steelers se quedaron sin los playoffs en 2018? (Parte II)

 

En la entrega anterior estuvimos repasando cómo las entregas de balón afectaron de manera decisiva el resultado final de la temporada 2018.

Ahora es el turno de los errores en la ejecución

Mucho se ha discutido acerca de si los Pittsburgh Steelers es un equipo mal dirigido por el staff encabezado por el Coach Tomlin, o si en cambio, lo que sepultó las aspiraciones de disputar el Super Bowl LIII fue un déficit grave en la ejecución.

Pero ¿cómo evaluar objetivamente la “ejecución”? ¿Qué aspectos del juego, a ambos lados del balón y en los equipos especiales representan objetivamente “la ejecución”?  

Según la Real Academia Española “poner en ejecución significa ejecutar, llevar a la práctica, realizar”. Entonces el paso siguiente es buscar aquellos indicadores que permitan evaluar de manera más objetiva la aptitud del equipo para conseguir el objetivo, que en este caso es ganar el partido. Como ejemplificaba en el artículo anterior, mi idea es realizar una “auditoría” a los números del equipo.

¿Fueron los Steelers el mejor equipo de la liga, como se pregonaba a mediados de año?

Claramente la respuesta es NO. Pero, ¿qué tan lejos se estuvo de eso?

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers vs Bengals

JuJu Smith-Schuster noto un touchdown en le finale contra los Bengals. Photo Credit: Barry Reeger, PennLive.com

¿Una ofensiva de élite?

Para comenzar analicemos el indicador más duro de ejecución: el resultado.

Todos conocemos de memoria este ítem: 9 – 6 – 1 (otra temporada ganadora para el Coach Tomlin, argumentarán sus defensores. Temporadas ganadoras sin títulos es (en palabras de Carlos Ortega) agua tibia, rugirán sus detractores)

Nueve – 6 -1 parece hablar de un equipo mediocre, y 9 – 6 – 1 sin postemporada, peor aún.

Trataré de hacer que la farragosa sucesión de números que siguen no noquee al lector a la altura del segundo párrafo…

Anailcemos a la ofensiva en su conjunto y por secciones.

  • Como conjunto, se puede decir que fue el 7° mejor equipo en puntos anotados… Muy bien!
  • Dentro de la zona roja anotó TD el 73,5% de las veces. Primero en la Liga: excelente!!
  • Convirtieron el 44,4% de los 3er downs lo que los ubica 8° en este rubro: otra vez, muy bien!

Hasta ahora no parece tan mal, o sí?

En yardas recorridas por drive se ubicaron 6° con poco más de 32 yds por serie. El objetivo del drive es anotar (a veces consumir el reloj, es cierto) asique hay que ver cuantas veces se convirtieron puntos en esos drives (ya hablamos de esto en el capítulo anterior): 37 % de las veces (ranking 18°) Y ¿cuántos puntos se anotaron? ¿predominaron los TD? ¿o los goles de campo? Puntos por drive anotador: 2.23 puntos (como si cada vez que anotaban fueran goles de campo) Pero ojo, sólo 8 equipos convirtieron más puntos por drive anotador!

James Conner, Myles Garrett, Steelers vs. Browns

James Conner y Myles Garrett. Photo Credit: Barry Reeger, PennLive.

Decíamos que otro objetivo de las series ofensivas, aparte de anotar, claro, es consumir el reloj y controlar el ritmo del partido, manteniendo a la ofensiva rival fuera del campo. Pues aquí no se estuvo tan bien. Pero tampoco tan mal: 2:44 minutos por drive (ranking 14°)

Finalmente se retrocedieron 1.026 yardas por infracciones (este ítem atañe tanto a la ofensiva, la defensiva y equipos especiales) siendo el 3er peor equipo, solo superados por Kansas City y Jacksonville.

Ahora algunos datos por sección ofensiva.

El tándem QB-Receptores.

  • 5008 yds aéreas (2°)
  • Los receptores atraparon el 67% de los envíos (ranking 13°)
  • Intercepciones 17, compartiendo el 6° peor puesto con Cleveland (2,5% el porcentaje de veces que fue interceptado por intento de pese – ranking 20°-)
  • Ben Roethlisberger fue el líder pasador con 5.129 yardas y un QBR de 95,5 (ranking 13°)
  • El rating de QB de Big Ben cuando iba perdiendo fue más alto que el rating general (101.6 cuando iba perdiendo) Si va perdiendo faltando menos de 4 minutos el QBR baja a 80 y sorprendentemente cae a 67 dentro de los 2 minutos finales.

Línea ofensiva:

  • Permitió sólo 24 capturas de QB (ranking 4to mejor) o, visto de otro modo,
  • Permitió capturas el 3,4% de las veces que se intentó pase (2do mejor. Excelente!!!)

Juego terrestre:

La negativa de LeVeon Bell a retornar al equipo tuvo consecuencias innegables, aunque para sorpresa de casi todos James Conner superó largamente las expectativas. Pero alguien, en la dirección ofensiva del equipo, no tenía la misma confianza. No sé si fue MT, Coach Fitchner o el propio Ben el responsable de que durante largos momentos, el juego terrestre se mantuviera fuera y congelado.

  • El resultado? el 2do peor ataque terrestre de la Liga. Sólo 90,3 yds por tierra por juego. Ofensiva desbalanceada y predecible.

Si se analiza el juego terrestre por mitades (quiero decir, discriminado en primera y segunda mitad del partido) el promedio de yardas totales, yardas por acarreo y TD terrestres, veremos que no hay diferencias.

  • James Conner se perdió 3 partidos por lesión y aún así fue el 3er RB en cantidad de TD anotados, ganando así su lugar en el Pro Bowl por primera vez.

Si vemos el desempeño del ataque aéreo también dividido por mitades se puede ver que Big Ben lanzó casi el doble de intercepciones en la primera mitad y ¼ más de TD en ese segmento del juego. En efecto, en lo que respecta a los pases de TD Ben fue más prolífico en el 2do y 3er cuartos.

Hasta aquí las estadísticas de la ofensiva.

De 14 items trascendentes analizados, la ofensiva es top 10 en 7 (de ellos, 3 top 5)

Llegó el turno de auditar a la defensiva y los equipos especiales

¿Fue realmente la defensiva tan mala?

Por este lado las expectativas eran más modestas. Luego de la lesión de Ryan Shazier nada fue lo mismo y esta escuadra se veía herida de muerte durante el resto de la temporada 2017.

Seth Roberts, Terrell Edmunds, Morgan Burnett, Steelers vs Raiders

Seth Roberts quemo Terrell Edmunds & Morgan Burnett. Photo Credit: Tony Avelar, Raiders.com

En 2018 se llevaría a cabo la reparación de la unidad con la llegada de los veteranos Jon Bostic y Morgan Burnett y del novato de primera ronda, Terrell Edmunds se intentaría emparchar (aunque sea a medias) la ausencia del Playmaker.

Veamos algunos números:

  • Permitieron 360 puntos (un mediocre 17avo lugar) y en zona roja ocuparon el mismo puesto del ranking, permitiendo 59.2 puntos.

Los números más destacados fueron en (atención que me llevé alguna sorpresa):

  • Tackleo: 107.9 (9°. Desafortunadamente no pude encontrar la estadística de yardas después de la atrapada y después del contacto pero intuyo que se ha mejorado de manera muy significativa)
  • Pases defendidos: 83 (ranking 3° y a pesar de Burns. Primera gran sorpresa!)
  • Defensa contra el pase: 10° (Segunda sorpresa!)
  • Presión sobre el QB rival: 52 sacks (1° puesto en la Liga)
  • Defensa contra el juego terrestre: 10° en Yardas por intento y en yardas por partido
  • Y aquí comienzan los problemas: recuperaciones de balón INT 15 (ranking 29°) y fumbles recuperados 7 (21°)
  • Durante las 2das mitades esta defensiva se vió más vulnerable puesto que triplicaron los TD por tierra permitidos y sólo interceptaron 2 balones contra los 6 en las primeras mitades.
  • Por otra parte mostró poca capacidad de recuperación o de sobreponerse al marcador ya que le anotaron 22 TDs mientras iban abajo en el marcador y sólo 7 mientras iban ganando.

“Illegal block in the back” o El trabajo del Coach Smith

El título se explica por sí solo…. Sigamos adelante.

Los equipos especiales mostraron claroscuros. Hubo bloqueos de patadas cruciales, hubo TD, pero el debe más importante y doloroso fue el bajón de rendimiento de quien, con derecho, de había convertido en la 5ts “B” de los Killer B’s: Chris Boswell.

Chris Boswell, Nick Nelson, Steelers vs Raiders

Chris Boswell en Oakland… Photo Credit: Ross Cameron, AP via Tribune, Review

Pasó de un porcentaje de 92%para goles de campo en 2017 a 65% en 2018, con 9/10 en GC de 40 a 49 yds en 2017 y 5/10 desde la misma distancia en 2018. Inexplicable. Y catastrófico para el equipo.

Veamos algún detalle:

  • En las semanas 1 y 2 tuvo 1 GC en cada partido y los falló (el de Cleveland ganaba el partido)
  • Contra Denver fue 1-2
  • Contra Oakland fue 0-2

De jugador indiscutido (contrato multianual mediante) pasa a pelear por su puesto en el campo de entrenamiento próximo.

Switzer tampoco fue un dechado de talento al devolver patadas. Promedió 8 yds en paradas de despeje (ranking 17°) y 19.3 yds al devolver KO’s (31°)

Una estadística me llamó la atención. Es el punto, promedio, desde donde partía la ofensiva. Ese punto fue la yarda 26. (Ranking de la liga 31°)

Hasta aquí, los números que me parecieron más importantes

Pero entonces, ¿las estadísticas del equipo dan respuesta a nuestra pregunta original, sobre qué fue lo que pasó con este equipo en esta temporada?

La respuesta es, a mi entender, que no. Es más, estas estadísticas parecen describir a otro equipo.

Los números delatan algunas características o comportamientos del equipo que podrían ir en la dirección de dar una respuesta.

Por ejemplo,  el hecho de que Big Ben anote menos TD en la segunda mitad, puede ir en detrimento de la capacidad del equipo para cerrar o dar vuelta un partido.

  • Lanzar más intercepciones al comienzo del encuentro, explica o es reflejo de lo que  todos vimos: se empezaba lento.

Es sabido que las infracciones matan ofensivas o muchas veces exponen con crudeza incapacidades o falencias técnicas individuales o de conjunto. Que se haya perdido semejante número de yardas por infracciones no ha sido gratis. Con el correr de los partidos la cosa fue mejorando.

Pero mi conclusión es que las estadísticas, no explican el resultado de la temporada. El equipo en realidad debe salir con un Aprobado + si uno se fiara de los números.

Mi  impresión es que jugadas puntuales o segmentos determinados en varios de los partidos perdidos y en el empate de la semana 1 con Cleveland, sellaron el destino del equipo. Y en general estos eventos están relacionados con pérdidas de balón.

La diferencia entre ganar y perder estuvo en errores mentales, de concentración. Aún cuando el equipo se mostró más carente de ideas, se mantuvo en condiciones de dar vuelta el resultado o de llevar el partido a tiempo extra. Pero allí ocurría el error mental que sepultaba las aspiraciones.

Se perdió por 5.66 puntos promedio por partido. Pero esta cifra es engañosa, también, hasta cierto punto, porque está llevada hacia arriba por la derrota contra Ravens que fue la diferencia en puntos más abultada (12 puntos) Si se quita este partido la diferencia en puntos en partidos perdidos sería de 4 puntos. Por poco más que un gol de campo…

  • Nunca el equipo fue arrasado en el campo de juego.

En definitiva, la diferencia se puede decir que estuvo en los detalles, en determinados momentos de los partidos, en la falta de esa energía o talento extra que tienen los equipos campeones.

En favor de los detractores de Tomlin, tal vez ese plus le corresponda a la influencia del Head Coach para identificar en el momento adecuado qué es lo que le está faltando al equipo.

  • Ese talento extra nunca llegó. Ni del Head Coach, ni de parte de los jugadores.

Esta no es, ni pretende ser, la visión definitiva. Es, en tal caso, mi interpretación de una temporada que finalizó de manera muy extraña, decepcionante, por los resultados y por los sucesos que se ventilaron luego de la semana 17.

El Dr. de Acero

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Steelers 2019 Free Agency Tracker – Change Sweeping Through Pittsburgh

The NFL’s 2019 free agency signing period begins and one thing is already certain: The winds of change will sweep through the Pittsburgh Steelers roster this spring with a force that has not been seen since the 1990’s.

  • The 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers roster is a product of the rebuilding effort that started following Super Bowl XLV.

The Steelers 2019 roster will be very different. Antonio Brown is headed to Oakland and Le’Veon Bell will soon be gone to. The Steelers Killer Bees will be no more. Jesse James is reported to be headed to Detroit. Others will follow.

Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, Steelers vs Colts

Happier Times: Antonio Brown & Le’Veon Bell celebrate a touchdown. Photo Credit: Chaz Palla, Tribune Review

Every NFL team endures change, but true championship teams come to embrace it. Here’s a look at the Steelers 2019 free agents, their free agent pickups as well as losses.

Steelers 2019 Free Agent Signings

3/13/2019 – Steelers sign Steven Nelson, Cornerback from Kansas City to 3 year contract.
3/13/2019 – Steelers resign Anthony Chickillo to 2 year contract.
3/13/2019 – Steelers resign Jordan Berry to 2 year contract
3/14/2019 – Steelers resign Eli Rogers to 2 year contract
3/14/2019 – Steelers sign Donte Moncrief to 2 year contract
3/14/2019 – Steelers sign Daniel McCullers to 2 year contract
3/19/2019 – Steelers sign Mark Barron to 2 year contract

Steelers 2019 Free Agent Losses

3/13/2019 – Jesse James signs with Detroit Lions
3/13/2019 – Le’Veon Bell signs with New York Jets (for less money than the Steelers offered. Just say’n)
3/13/2019 – Steelers trade Antonio Brown to Raiders for a $3 Starbucks card and 5 box tops (er, um a 3rd and 5th round pick
3/14/2019 – L.J. Fort signs 3 year contract with Philadelphia Eagles

Steelers 2019 Unrestricted Free Agents

Click on the player’s name below for a feature length free agent profile.

Le’Veon Bell
Ramon Foster
Steelers resigned Ramon Foster to 2 year contract 3/8/2019
Tyson Alualu
Steelers resigned Tyson Alualu to 2 year contract 2/22/19
Jordan Berry
Ryan Shazier
Anthony Chickillo
Coty Sensabaugh
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Daniel McCullers
Justin Hunter
Nat Berhe
Stevan Ridley
L.J. Fort
Eli Rogers
Jesse James
L.T. Walton

Steelers 2019 Restricted Free Agents

Xavier Grimble
Steelers offered original round tender to Xavier Grimble, 3/8/2019
B.J. Finney
Steelers offered 2nd round tender to B.J. Finney 3/8/2019

Steelers 2019 Exclusive Rights Free Agents

Mike Hilton
Steelers offer ERFA tender to Mike Hilton, 3/8/2019
Matt Feiler
– Steelers offer ERFA tender to Matt Feiler, 3/8/2019
Jake McGee
Keith Kelsey
Malik Golden
Keion Adams

The Steelers have already been busy in free agency, signing Tyson Alualu to a 2 year contract extension and informing Le’Veon Bell that they will not place the transition tag on him.

  • In the coming days Steel Curtain Rising will be publishing profiles of each of the Steelers 2019 free agents, following the same formula that we’ve used for the last several off seasons.

We’ll begin with a capsule summary of the player’s career as a Steeler, the strongest argument one could possibly make in favor of resigning the player, the strongest possible case arguing against resigning the player, followed by our “Curtain’s Call” describing what we think will and should happen.

You’ll be able to access all Steelers 2019 Free Agent profiles by clicking on our Steelers 2019 free agent focus category tag.

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Reminder Steelers Nation: Lombardi Trophies are an Achievement, Not an Entitlement

Super Bowl Sunday has arrived and the Pittsburgh Steelers are not playing in it. And while that’s a disappointment, it hardly qualifies as an injustice.

  • Lombardi Trophies are an achievement not an entitlement.

This should be obvious, but certain segments of Steelers Nation seem to have lost sight of the fact. Many bemoan the fact that Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger have only gone 1-1 in Super Bowls and haven’t sniffed the big game since 2010.

Dan Rooney, Dan Rooney legacy, Dan Rooney Lombardi Trophies, Dan Rooney obituary

Dan Rooney sitting in front of the Steelers 5 Lombardi Trophies. Photo Credit: Steelers.com

Yes, It IS Hard to Feel Good about the Steelers Right Now

Before proceeding, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room:

  • It is very hard to feel good about the Pittsburgh Steelers these days.

Heck, yours truly started in article musing about the potential for a Steelers rebound in 2019 that Tony Defeo finished while on I vacation. During that time even MORE negative news surfaced about the Antonio Brown AND Morgan Burnett publicly asked for his release.

Jerome Bettis and Hines Ward have sounded off on the situation. Who knows? Before this is over, we might expect to hear from Preston Gothard. OK, we won’t, but you get the point.

All of this provides a poignant backdrop to the harsh reality that since losing the 2016 AFC Championship game to the Patriots, the Steelers have taken two successive steps backwards.

  • Why have the Steelers regressed?

There are many reasons. The hand of fate has been felt acutely. Think Ryan Shazier’s injury or even the injuries that ruined Senquez Golson’s NFL career before it began.

Mike Tomlin, Steelers vs Browns, Steelers Browns tie, Mike Tomlin rain

Mike Tomlin after the Steelers 21-21 tie against the Browns. Photo Credit: Scott R. Galvin, USA TODAY, via ActionNetwork.com

Art Rooney II, Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have all made mistakes. None of what follows absolves them of their errors. But it should remind us of just how hard their job is.

Winning a Super Bowl Is Hard

The Pittsburgh Steelers have appeared in 8 of 53 Super Bowls. You’ll find no better example of institutional excellence, but spoils Steelers fans into forgetting just how hard it is to bring home a Lombardi.
Just how hard is it to win a Super Bowl?

Well, let’s begin with the fact that the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have never appeared in a Super Bowl. While the Jaguars and Texans joined the league as expansion teams in the ‘90’s and 00’s, Lions and Browns fans are waiting ½ century and counting for their first shot at a Lombardi.

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates 1971 and 1979 World Series wins practically qualify Bucos as a dynasty by comparison.

Super Bowl appearances are nice, but it is the wins that really count. Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills fans can attest. Those two franchises lead the league in lost Super Bowls with 4 apiece. In total, there are 12 teams that have never won a Super Bowl in the 53 year history of the event.

  • In other words, 37.5% of NFL teams have never hoisted a Lombardi.

And that percentage does not control for timeliness.

The Jets, Chiefs and Dolphins all have Lombardi’s to display. New York’s arrived as to product of one of the greatest upsets in the history of North American sports.

  • That upset also happened 8 days before Richard Nixon put his hand on the Bible to be sworn in as President.

Hank Stram and the Kansas City Chiefs also pulled off an upset of their own in Super Bowl IV, a victory which came three months before the Beatles officially broke up.

The Miami Dolphins won their last Super Bowl in January 1974, back when Star Trek seemed condemned to be forgotten as a cult series relegated to perpetual re-run status on UHF channels.

Going 1-1 in Super Bowls over an 11 year period doesn’t sound quite has bad, does it? (Special nod to Ivan Cole who pointed many of these stats out via email.)

Building Back-to-Back Super Bowl Eras Is Harder Yet

If winning a Super Bowl is difficult, then stitching together back-to-back Super Bowl eras is harder yet. Think of the franchises fortunate enough to field successive franchise quarterbacks.

George Seifert replaced Joe Montana with Steve Young. He also had Jerry Rice, arguably giving him a better quarterback, wide receiver combos than Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. He only won one Super Bowl with Joe Montana and one with Steve Young.

The Green Bay Packers had Brett Farve for 16 years and went 1-1 in Super Bowls. succeeded him with Aaron Rodgers, yet have only added 1 more Lombardi to the case under his watch.

  • The Colts of course followed Peyton Manning with Andrew Luck but are still waiting on their latest Lombardi.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have indeed authored a Super Bowl era that has lasted 18 years an counting, an incredible achievement which they very well might add to this evening.

But even the vaunted Patriots went 10 years between Lombardi Trophies. And while we’re at it, just how many trophies did Pete Carroll’s Legion of Boom bag?

Hum, going 1-1 in Super Bowls and never dropping below .500 seems a little more appealing now, doesn’t it?

Yeah, But the Steelers Have Had a Franchise Quarterback….

True. And, given what was discussed above, the familiar refrain that Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert are squandering Ben Roethlisberger’s prime years certainly rings true.

  • But how does sentiment stand up to logic?

Let’s see. Don Shula had Dan Marino and only managed one Super Bowl appearance and zero wins. Dan Reeves lost 3 Super Bowls with John Elway. Marv Levy lost 4 Super Bowls with Jim Kelly. Sean Payton and Drew Brees only have one Lombardi to their credit, and have endured 4 losing seasons since winning a Super Bowl.

  • Franchise quarterbacks come with a sort of Catch 22.

Today, a franchise quarterback is (almost) essential to winning a Super Bowl. Yet a franchise quarterback sucks up salary cap space and all but ensures that his team will draft late in every round. That means a franchise quarterback can take you to the Mountain Top, maybe more than once, but his presence also makes it hard to mount a serious comeback should you get knocked off the top.

Steelers Still Have a Shot at a Third Ring

To repeat:  It is hard to feel good about the direction the Pittsburgh Steelers are heading in. As I have said before and will again, it is entirely possible that the window to Lombardi Number Three for the Ben Roethlisberger era closed the moment Ryan Shazier suffered his spinal contusion.

But the emergence of T.J. Watt, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald and James Conner alongside stalwarts like Cam Heyward and Joe Haden at least give the Steelers a chance to keep the window open.

  • Will the Steelers walk through the window before Ben Roethlisberger begins his “Life’s Work?”

Time will tell. But let’s enjoy the ride that might still take us back to the Mountain Top while we still can.

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2018 Steelers Season Review – A Perfect Storm Ruins A Promising Year in Pittsburgh

The NFL divisional playoffs were played over last weekend, and unlike the previous 4 seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers are not only didn’t play, they never even had a chance to get there, despite holding a 7-2-1 record at mid-season.

  • Our Steelers 2018 season review explores why and how a perfect storm ruined a once promising season in Pittsburgh.

Truthfully, our Steelers-Patriots preview has already told the story of the 2018 Steelers as a team that started September morbidly cold, got super heated in October, only to find room temperature as winter arrived. That’s accurate, but doesn’t tell us much about why things played out that way. Today, we dig a deeper.

James Conner, Steelers vs Browns, James Conner Fumble

James Conner fumbles late in the 4th quarter of the Steelers-Browns tie. Photo Credit: Photo credit: Sporting News Canada

Counting on a Bell that Never Tolled

Full disclosure: I endorsed the Steelers second franchise tag on Le’Veon Bell. I was wrong. Franchising Le’Veon Bell was a mistake on two levels:

Travis Kelce, Jon Bostic, Sean Davis, Steelers vs Chiefs

Travis Kelce catches as Jon Bostic & Sean Davis look on. Photo Credit: Barry Reeger, PennLive.com

First, because Le’Veon Bell never played, the Steelers had 14.5 million salary cap dollars committed to player who wasn’t delivering value. That commitment forced the Steelers to go bargain hunting on defense, leading to the signings of Jon Bostic and Morgan Burnett.

Jon Bostic and Morgan Burnett were upgrades from Sean Spence and Mike Mitchell, but even at their best the duo was never going to return defense to the level it was teasing in mid-2017 before injuries to Joe Haden and Ryan Shazier.

  • For a while, it looked like James Conner was going to make Le’Veon Bell “Mr. Irrelevant.”

But, Bell’s hold out meant that an injury to James Conner would downgrade the Steelers from a Super Bowl contender to a team that might make the playoffs.

And of course James Conner did get injured, leading to a rather ironic situation discussed below.

Learning the Right Lesson at the Wrong Time

For several years, the Steelers have failed to field sufficient depth at running back. During the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers have (almost) never reached December with their top two running backs healthy. Despite that, they’ve neglected the third running back slot.

  • Randy Fichtner took a lot of criticism for passing so much, but people forget that the season started very differently.

In fact, early on Mike Tomlin seemed poised to ride James Conner until the wheels fell off, just had he’d done with Willie Parker, Le’Veon Bell and, to a lesser degree, Rashard Mendenhall.

But as you can see, James Conner’s touch count dropped dramatically, starting with the Panthers game. Before that he was averaging 23.6 touches per game, after that his touch count dipped to an average of 16.2.

James Conner, James Conner 2018 statistics

James Conner’s 2018 statistics

And that 31% decrease occurred just as it became clear that Le’Veon Bell would sit out the season.

Keep in mind that turnovers forced Pittsburgh to play from behind in Jacksonville and at Denver, and that certainly contributed to the decrease, but on 247 Sports Pittsburgh, Jim Wexell has suggested numerous times that the Steelers were trying to avoid running Conner into the ground.

  • This was the right thing to do because Jaylen Samuels was an unknown commodity.

But, it though Ben Roethlisberger‘s interception % was below that of 2017 and below his career average, throwing the ball so much ultimately led to more interceptions, and turnovers or the lack thereof doomed the Steelers.

Keeping Ben Out in Oakland

By Mike Tomlin’s own admission, Ben Roethlisberger could have returned to the game at Oakland 1 series earlier. Having taken Mike Tomlin to task for this decision at the time and the Steelers 2018 Report Card, there is no reason for repetition.

Joshua Dobbs, Steelers vs Raiders

Joshua Dobbs Photo Credit: Karl Rosner, Steelers.com

  • Indeed, the counter argument that no one considers is that Tomlin was concerned about his 125 million dollar quarterback puncturing a lung.

Did anyone really want to see the Steelers close out the season with Joshua Dobbs under center? But we don’t live in a hypothetical world. The reality is that Ben delivered as soon as he returned to the game, and suffered no further injury. There’s no reason to think one more series would have changed things.

Tomlin gambled, and lost and it cost the Steelers a whole lot more than one game.

Zebras Put Steelers on Endangered Species List

I don’t like complaining about officiating. Complaining about officiating is what the sore loser Seattle Seahawks did following Super Bowl XL. When a bad call goes against you, it’s on you to deal with it.

Yet, I’ve actively followed the Steelers for 31 years, and I have never seen Pittsburgh suffer from so many chronic bad calls. Consider:

Take away any one of those, and the Steelers could very well be playing this weekend. Yes, championship teams find ways to overcome bad calls. (See the 2005 Steelers following Troy Polamalu’s overturned interception in the divisional playoff win over the Colts.)

The 2018 Steelers clearly lacked what it took to overcome those bad calls, but they had far too many to overcome.

Of Turnovers and Ball Security

What do James Conner, Xaiver Grimble, Stevan Ridley and JuJu Smith-Schuster have in common? They all fumbled at critical moments costing the Steelers wins when they needed them. While Ben Roethlisberger’s interceptions came either in the Red Zone or at critical moments in games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers vs Saints, JuJu Smith-Schuster fumble

JuJu Smith-Schuster’s fumble doomed the Steelers. Photo Credit: Butch Dill, AP via Tribune Review

Joe Haden would have made a Red Zone interception himself against the Chargers, but Sean Davis leveled him, and the ball, bounced right into Keenan Allen‘s hands with an uncanniness not seen this side of the 1991 Steelers loss to the Browns at Cleveland Stadium.

  • Like Greg Lloyd and James Harrison before him, T.J. Watt not only sacked quarterbacks but stripped the ball while doing it.
  • Yet all too often, the ball failed to bounce the Steelers way.

On the season, the Steelers turned the ball over 26 times and only secured 15 turnovers. You simply can’t win a lot of games like that.

It’s the Talent Stupid

There are no shortage of professional commentators, let alone fans, who’ve spent the balance of 2019 berating Mike Tomlin for failing to deliver with a “super talented team.” 2018 Steelers did underachieve.

  • But is ti accurate or even fair to describe the 2018 Steelers roster as “Super talented?”

On offense, James Conner almost canceled out the loss of Le’Veon Bell, but Bell’s ball security suggests he wouldn’t have fumbled those two balls. Vance McDonald made greater impact in 2018 than in 2017, improving the tight end position.

  • The offensive line’s performance was at least as strong as it had been in 2017.

But at wide receiver the story is different. Antonio Brown started the season slowly. JuJu Smith-Schuster exploded in 2018, and gave the Steelers a better number 2 wide out than Martavis Bryant had given them in 2017.

But James Washington didn’t give them a better number 3 option at wide receiver than JuJu had done a year ago. And while Ryan Switzer was a decent number 4 wide receiver, Eli Rogers gave them a better option in 2017.

  • So the talent level of the Steelers 2018 was strong, but slightly lower than it had been a year ago.

On defense, the 2018 Steelers defense improved from the post-Shazier 2017 defense, but was nowhere near the level the defense was approaching in the middle of 2017.

Take this a step further as “MuleFunk” did over on the 247 Pittsburgh’s message board, and compare the 2018 Steelers defense to the 2008 Steelers defense that led Pittsburgh to victory in Super Bowl XLIII. How many of this year’s players could start on the ’08 defense?

Seth Roberts, Terrell Edmunds, Morgan Burnett, Steelers vs Raiders

Seth Roberts smokes Terrell Edmunds & Morgan Burnett. Photo Credit: Tony Avelar, Raiders.com

You’d start Joe Haden over Deshea Townsend, I’d argue you start Cam Heyward over Brett Keisel and probably T.J. Watt over LaMarr Woodley. Neither of those moves is a slam dunk, but you wouldn’t even think to ask the question with any other player on the Steelers 2018 defense.

To the contrary, if Dr. Brown were to show up with his DeLorean, I’d unhesitatingly go back to 2008, snatch Lawrence Timmons off the bench, and start him at either inside linebacker slot in the 2018 Steelers defense.

Finally, while it may not solely be a question of talent, Chris Boswell went from “Mr. Automatic” to “Mr. Cross your Finger and Clutch Your Rosary Beads.” That alone cost the Steelers one game, arguable another and complicated other wins.

Conclusion – A Cloudy Future for Pittsburgh

In the end, a team is its record and the Pittsburgh Steelers took a step back in 2018. But if the Steelers took a step back in 2018, could they take a step forward the way they did after disappointing campaigns in 2003 and 2007?

However, that was before the situation with Antonio Brown became public, and issue which clouds any attempt to predict Pittsburgh’s immediate future.

 

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Loyalty vs Rationality: Does “Finding Room Temperature” = Another Upset for the 2018 Steelers?

Just a week ago you could muse that the Steelers might be on the verge of a breakout without risking being labeled as a hopeless homer. I did just that, asking if the Steelers recent troubles signaled that the team was regressing to the mean or if perhaps, Pittsburgh was primed for a serious playoff run.

“Regressing to the mean” is a nerdy statistical term that doesn’t seem to belong in a football blog. So a more illustrative way to think of what is going on is that the Steelers started the season morbidly cold, got red hot in October and early November, but are now finding room temperature in December.

  • And room temperature in December is pretty darn chilly (even here in Buenos Aires, where spring continues to mercifully hold summer at bay.)

Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Tomlin

Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin. Photo Credit:
Charlie Riedel, AP via PennLive.com

And that’s what’s going on. One could reasonably look at the Steelers performances in September and imagine this team contending for a top ten draft pick. By the time November arrived, they looked like AFC Championship, if not Super Bowl Championship material.

  • Now, outside of something extraordinary, they’re going to finish within spitting distance of .500.

But what does finding room temperature really mean for this group of Pittsburgh Steelers? Does it mean that the Steelers will tease but ultimately lose to the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints only to finish the season with a face-saving win over the Bengals?

  • Or does the process of finding “room temperature” also imply that the Steelers have another upset in them?

The way the Steelers have played, and more importantly, the plays they have chronically failed to make at critical junctures during losses to Denver, the Chargers and Raiders make it near impossible to trust this team.

If the law of averages governed outcomes of football games, what could we conclude? Well, let’s take a look at an interesting stat someone posted on Twitter:

That doesn’t seem promising, does it?

Yet, if already having dropped games to Oakland and Denver, it would almost seem like the odds favor the Steelers beating either New Orleans or New England. The Steelers positive performances would also seem to suggest that Pittsburgh is due for just one more fireworks display during this regular season.

  • And that’s what makes the prospect of an upset remains tantalizing.

And New England would seem to offer the best shot. Yes, the Patriots are the Patriots. And yes New England has owned Pittsburgh for a generation. And the Steelers are going to play the game without James Conners and with Stevan Ridley promising revenge against his former team (oh, I’m sure the threat of Ridley’s revenge has Bill Belichick quaking in his boots.)

Yet just a year ago, absent Ryan Shazier and absent Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell came within a Jesse James replay recalled touchdown of beating the Patriots.

  • And this Patriots team isn’t as good as last years.

But does the prospect of Artie Burns and Cam Sutton replacing Coty Sensabaugh and Mike Hilton inspire confidence that Steelers will finally crack the Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski riddle? No, it does not.

  • And that’s what makes these Steelers so hard to predict.

Aside from their own deficiencies, the ball has not bounced the Steelers way much this season. They seem due for a break. But remember, dice don’t have memories. Call me out for a cop out if you want, but I’m going to fall back on the Joe Gibbs party line that I heard so often growing up in the Washington D.C. suburbs, “I really don’t know what to expect.”

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Are 2018 Steelers Regressing to the Mean or is Pittsburgh Primed for a Breakout?

Sometimes a week can feel like a lifetime in the NFL. Seven days ago the Pittsburgh Steelers were set to play at home, in Prime Time, against another AFC heavyweight and with a viable shot at an AFC bye. Today, things are very different:

  • The Steelers are clinging to a ½ game lead in the AFC North
  • They’re heading to a venue that has tortured Pittsburgh in the past.
  • They also have games against New England and New Orleans awaiting them.

Oh, and on top of that, James Conner is out, threatening to push an offense that was already a little pass-happy, into one that is plainly one-dimensional. This type of ebb and flow is normal in the NFL, where a single game carries the impact of 10 baseball games or 5 NBA or NHL games.

By this point in 1974, Joe Gilliam, Terry Hanratty and Terry Bradshaw had all taken turns as “the starter” while Joe Greene had come very close to walking out on the team. Yet, that season ended with Pete Rozelle handing Art Rooney Sr. the Lombardi Trophy.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, A.J. Bouye, Steelers vs Jaguars

JuJu Smith-Schuster. Photo Credit: Karl Rosner, Steelers.com

Which doesn’t predict that the 2018 season will end with Roger Goodell handing Art Rooney II a piece of hardware, but rather reminds us that reality unfolds at its own pace in the NFL. Which begs the question:

  • Are the 2018 Steelers regressing to the mean or is Pittsburgh primed for a breakout?

That might seem like an odd question coming from a writer who concluded that the loss to the Chargers made the Steelers look more like pretenders than contenders. Accordingly, we’ll look at the case for regressing to the mean first.

Case for Regressing to the Mean

The Steelers stunk in September. They finished 1-2-1. Their tie against Cleveland came by virtue of T.J. Watt’s blocked field goal and their lone win against Tampa Bay felt more like an escape than a victory. The Steelers looked like a team worthy of contending for a top ten-draft pick in losses to the Chiefs and Ravens.

The September Steelers defense looked just as lost as it had without Ryan Shazier during the balance of 2017. Their offense was playing with no confidence, and the WiFi between Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown was on the fritz.

  • Then came October, and where the Steelers authored a 6 game winning streak.

Sure, several last second comebacks were needed, but with each passing week, the Steelers improved.

On defense, Jon Bostic, while no Ryan Shaizer, proved himself to be a competent replacement. Terrell Edmunds began showing some playing ability, and the shift of Sean Davis to free safety was paying dividends. Bud Dupree was making waves.

On offense, Antonio Brown’s production might have been “down” outside of scoring touchdowns, but JuJu Smith-Schuster proved that he can burn defenses just as badly. Vance McDonald, while not quite rising to the level of being Pittsburgh’s Gronk, showed he could be a weapon. With each passing week James Conners was making fans ask, “Le’Veon Who?” Behind it all, was the Steelers offensive line who was playing at an elite level.

However, the second half of November brought several yellow flags:

  • The Steelers run defense started giving up yards in double-digit chunks on a regular basis
  • By plan or happenstance, the Steelers offense leaned heavily towards the pass increasing turnovers
  • The Steelers defense consistently failed respond by securing turnovers of their own
  • Chris Boswell began missing kicks again

Combined those tendencies above with the critical plays that the Steelers failed to make against the Chargers and you get a portrait of a 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers team that is settling in at room temperature after starting cold and then getting red hot for a spell.

The Case for the Steelers Breaking Out

Commentators who know their X’s and O’s far better than I do have interpreted the outcome of the Chargers game in just the opposite way.

Penalties should have negated the Chargers 1st and 3rd touchdowns. The off sides penalties on Joe Haden and Artie Burns that led to three field goal attempts are hard, if not impossible to find on film.

  • Sure, the Steelers gave up a 16 point lead, but piss poor officiating essentially spotted the Chargers 16 points.

You can expect most mediocre NFL teams to win when you spot them 16 points. Spot a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback 16 points and it’s almost metaphysically impossible to beat them. In that light, the fact that the Steelers took the game to the wire is a sign of strength rather than weakness.

The Danger of Over Interpreting “Almost Wins”

There’s a compelling case to be made that Pittsburgh remains primed for a breakout during the rest of December.

But almost one year ago there were those who were suggesting the same thing after the Steelers loss to the Patriots: Even without Antonio Brown, the only thing separating the Steelers from victory was a botched call on a Jesse James TD.

  • It seemed like the Steelers proved they could play with anyone, but that illusion got smashed with the simple roar of a Jaguar.

These types of paradoxes are what make December football so much fun: The odds appear to be stacked against them, yet the Steelers hold their destiny in their own hands.

So perhaps it is fitting that they travel to Oakland today to take on the Raiders. The Raiders might only be a 2-10 team, but the Steelers have suffered some of the worst losses of the Roethlisberger era in Oakland’s Black Hole.

If you think that signals some sort of doom take heart: The last time the Steelers won in Oakland was in 1995 in a season that ended in Super Bowl XXX.

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